At UFC 326, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira face off in what feels like an epilogue for the UFC’s old guard. Both men are on the back end of storied careers, fighting to hang onto their place in the title picture.

Of course, this isn’t their first meeting. The two first collided in 2015 as young contenders—just 23 and 25 years old—when they headlined UFC Fight Night 74 in Saskatoon, Canada. That fight ended barely a minute in, when Oliveira suddenly crumpled to the canvas with an apparent neck injury, forcing an abrupt stoppage.

Both went on to become undisputed champions in their own right, with Holloway ruling the featherweights and Oliveira the lightweights. Each has left a mark on the record books: Holloway through his relentless pressure boxing, landing more significant strikes than anyone in UFC history, and Oliveira through his vicious grappling and muay thai acumen, producing the most finishes the sport has ever seen. Both arrive now at UFC 326 on the heels of crushing defeats, having suffered brutal knockouts at the hands of current lightweight champion Ilia Topuria. For Holloway, the first KO loss of his career.

Both men have since rebounded. Last summer, Holloway bested longtime rival Dustin Poirier in a dominant 49–46 unanimous decision, while Oliveira submitted Mateusz Gamrot in front of his home crowd in Rio de Janeiro. Now they meet at a crossroads. A win here could lead to redemption, perhaps a rematch against Topuria, or even a money fight with a returning Conor McGregor. A loss would all but close the door. However it plays out, I don’t expect this fight to go the distance, and I’ve got a strong sense of who comes out on top.

Oliveira has the decided advantage in the grappling department, which will ultimately be the X-factor here. Holloway demonstrated elite takedown defense in his trilogy with Alexander Volkanovski and he passed Brian Ortega’s jiu-jiutsu test with flying colors, but Oliveira figures to be a much trickier challenge. It’s difficult to overstate how dangerous Oliveira’s guard is if Holloway does get caught inside.

Still, I have little faith in Oliveira to impose his will early. What’s far more likely is that he gets dragged into Holloway’s kind of fight, a war on the feet, and I don’t think it’ll be particularly close. Holloway is going to light him up; Oliveira’s head movement and footwork are simply no match. 

Oliveira does his best work in the clinch, but for him, getting there often means walking straight through fire. Even in signature wins over Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje, he was dropped multiple times before finding the finish. Less than a year ago, Ilia Topuria made him pay for it, putting him out in brutal fashion within one of their first exchanges.

Holloway is just as slick, and we’ve seen him show legitimate knockout power since moving up to lightweight. He slumped Justin Gaethje out cold at UFC 300 and nearly finished Dustin Poirier in the first round of their rematch at UFC 318, thoroughly schooling both. I think Holloway is going to apply pressure early, and Oliveira is going to walk right into shots in typical fashion. I see Holloway cracking him early and finding a finish in the second round (Holloway by KO/TKO +170).

Max Holloway made his UFC debut all the way back in February 2012. Since then, he’s had 31 fights, including ten title bouts. He’s spent 8 hours and 27 minutes inside the Octagon, second only to Rafael Dos Anjos. He’s landed the most significant strikes in UFC history, and absorbed the most as well. Yet he still looks sharp—rejuvenated, even—almost as if we haven’t seen the best of him yet. It’s a wonder he can still do it, and it raises the question of just how much longer he can keep it up. 

But as of now, there’s no sign of the wheels coming off. He’d have to fall off a cliff to lose here. I expect Holloway to get it done handily.