New era, new opportunities. UFC 324—the promotion’s first event under the Paramount marquee—takes place Saturday, January 24, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and it’s bookended by two bona fide goldmines for underdog money.

Opener: Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva — Featherweight Bout

Jean Silva bettors may be in for a rude awakening.

The Silva hype train came to a halt last September after he suffered a brutal knockout loss to Diego Lopes. Yet it appears to be chugging along again, with the No. 11–ranked contender now favored over Arnold Allen, the No. 6–ranked stalwart of the division.

Many will tell you Silva was “doing well” in his last bout against Lopes—and he was, until he wasn’t. After nearly getting stopped in a disastrous first round, Silva regrouped, found his rhythm, and began to seize control of the fight. Then he grew overzealous and walked directly into a spinning elbow in Round 2.

That sequence is emblematic of the kind of fighter Silva is. There’s little reason to believe those tendencies will suddenly disappear here.

This matchup represents another serious step up in competition for Silva. Allen may not possess the same one-shot knockout power as Lopes, but he is just as slick and fast, and far more disciplined. Allen is being criminally undervalued in this spot. He split hairs in a five-round war with Max Holloway and arguably should have been given the nod over Movsar Evloev at UFC 297, the division’s current No. 1 contender. I don’t think Allen is going to be fazed here.

Silva is explosive and high-volume; he thrives on flustering his opponents. But Allen should be able to stay composed. He has the patience and precision to frustrate Silva, make him miss, and land clean, flush combinations all night.

Allen’s underdog status likely stems from inactivity—he hasn’t competed since July 2024. At just 31 years old, however, that layoff shouldn’t be a meaningful concern. I expect Allen to stick and move his way to a clear decision (+300), reasserting himself in the upper echelon of the featherweight division.

Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett — Interim Lightweight Title

I’m dumbfounded by this one. Oddsmakers have pegged Paddy Pimblett as a 3-to-1 favorite over Justin Gaethje, and the market appears to agree—more than 75% of the money wagered on this fight at DraftKings is on the favorite. I’m not sure I understand where the confidence is coming from.

It’s no secret the UFC brass has rushed Pimblett into this position. Between his last fight in April and now, he has climbed three spots in the rankings—from eighth to fifth—without breaking a sweat.

But résumés don’t lie. Pimblett’s last three wins, spread across an underwhelming two-year stretch, include the shell of Tony Ferguson in the midst of a six-fight skid; Bobby Green, who is practically a grappling dummy; and an over-the-hill Michael Chandler—his first and only top-10 opponent—a short, stocky, low-accuracy striker.

Gaethje is levels above anything he has encountered yet. Pimblett has youth on his side, and the machine is certainly behind him, but it’s going to take far more than that alone to pass this test.

To be fair, there is a clear path to victory here for the Scouser. Even accounting for his weak strength of schedule, Pimblett’s ground game has been legitimately impressive, and Gaethje has been submitted twice before—inside one round by Charles Oliveira in 2022 and within two rounds by Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2020.

That said, Pimblett’s guard is nowhere near as treacherous as Oliveira’s, and more importantly, he doesn’t present anything like Nurmagomedov’s relentless takedown threat. Getting this fight to the ground is going to be a real hurdle, and any prolonged exchanges in the pocket would put Pimblett directly in the line of fire, where his haphazard stand-up game is sure to be picked apart.

Gaethje isn’t exactly a knockout artist—his title as “the UFC’s most violent fighter” is somewhat of a misnomer—but it would be foolish to dismiss him as harmless on the feet. If Pimblett charges forward with his chin on a silver platter, as he’s known to do, Gaethje has the power and pressure to really make him pay for it.

If he can find Pimblett’s chin, intermittent with his notorious leg kicks and hard shots to the body, things could get ugly fast, particularly in a five-round setting. I won’t call it a war of attrition; this will look more like a beatdown. Pimblett’s lack of big-fight experience is going to be the X-factor here.

I’m torn between Gaethje by KO (+400) or Gaethje by decision (+550). I could see him scoring a late finish, but it wouldn’t be unwise to hedge with the any-method line (+190).

Gaethje is nearing the end of the road on a storied, often tumultuous career. He’s taken a lot of damage, but there appears to be enough left in the tank to school a young contender like Pimblett, claim the interim title, and set up one last hurrah—an undisputed title fight against Ilia Topuria later this summer.